The Strategic Post

Iran’s Missile Attack on Israel: What’s Happening and What Comes Next?

Iran missile attack on Israel, Israel retaliation, Iron Dome, US involvement in Israel-Iran conflict. In a dramatic turn of events, Iran launched hundreds of missiles toward Israel, marking a major escalation in the already tense relationship between the two countries. While this is not the first time Iran has attacked Israel, the scale and timing of this assault are concerning as Before most Missiles were either Intercepted or Destroyed. The missile strike follows a series of targeted killings of key Iranian and Hezbollah leaders, leading to severe retaliations from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

So, what’s going on? Let’s break it down.

The Scale of Iran’s Missile Attack

The Iranian missile barrage on Israel was massive. We’re talking around 180 missiles launched towards Israeli territory, making it one of the largest missile attacks Israel has faced in recent years. For comparison, back in April, Iran launched around 140 missiles (a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles). This time, Israeli military footage showed missiles flying dangerously close to Tel Aviv, with confirmed hits in several areas, including the south and central parts of the country.

Israel’s air defense systems, such as the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and the Arrow series, managed to intercept a significant number of these missiles. But not all were stopped. Some projectiles made it through, and two people were reported slightly injured by shrapnel. While Israeli authorities have confirmed that the majority of the missiles were intercepted, the IRGC claims that 90% of their missiles hit their intended targets, including three Israeli military bases.

Why Did Iran Launch This Attack?

The reason behind this assault seems pretty straightforward: revenge. Iran has been retaliating after a series of covert operations by Israel that led to the killings of top IRGC commanders and key Hezbollah leaders. Among those killed were Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, and Abbas Nilforoshan, a senior IRGC commander. The deaths of these high-profile figures were seen as a significant blow to Iran and its allies, sparking this missile onslaught as a response.

Another key figure mentioned by the IRGC is Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran back in July. While Israel has not admitted responsibility for his death, many believe it to be part of Israel’s ongoing covert war against Iran and its allies.

Israel’s Iron Dome and Air Defenses: A Lifesaver?

Israel’s Iron Dome is famous for its effectiveness in intercepting short-range rockets, particularly those fired by groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. But with Iran using a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles, Israel’s defense systems had to step up. David’s Sling is capable of intercepting medium-to-long-range rockets and cruise missiles, while the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems are designed for intercepting long-range ballistic missiles.

Reports from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem indicated that many missiles were intercepted, with flashes lighting up the sky as the defense systems went to work. US forces also played a role, with American Navy destroyers shooting down several missiles aimed at Israel.

The failure of Israel’s missile defense system to fully intercept today’s missile barrage raises intriguing questions. Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow systems are highly advanced and have consistently demonstrated their effectiveness. However, there are multiple possible reasons for the system’s lapse today:

1. Iran’s Use of Hypersonic Missiles

One of the most plausible explanations is that Iran may have used hypersonic missiles, which are more difficult to intercept. Hypersonic missiles fly at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) and can maneuver in unpredictable patterns, making them incredibly challenging for even the most advanced missile defense systems. Iron Dome and other Israeli defense systems are optimized for intercepting short and medium-range rockets and ballistic missiles, but hypersonic missiles introduce a different set of challenges. If Iran did use such weapons, it could explain why Israeli defenses struggled.

2. Strain from Simultaneous Threats

Another factor could be that Israel’s defense systems were overwhelmed. Over recent weeks, Israel has been intercepting rockets and missiles fired by Hamas and Hezbollah. These rockets are typically low-tech and easier to intercept, but if the defense system was already engaged or stretched thin dealing with these other threats, it might have had less capacity to focus on Iran’s more advanced, faster missiles. This strain on resources may have contributed to a few missiles getting through.

3. Sophisticated Multi-Phase Attack

Iran may have employed a strategy where it launched multiple waves of different types of missiles (ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic), designed to confuse or saturate Israeli defenses. While Iron Dome and David’s Sling are capable of handling high volumes of incoming threats, a coordinated attack with various missile types and trajectories could have exploited potential weaknesses.

4. Deliberate Decision to Let Some Missiles Hit

Another theory is that Israel’s missile defense systems might have prioritized certain threats over others. In a mass attack scenario, missile defense systems sometimes calculate which incoming projectiles pose the greatest risk and allocate resources accordingly. Israel may have determined that some missiles, potentially headed for less populated or less strategic areas, did not warrant interception compared to more dangerous threats aimed at key infrastructure or cities. This decision could be a calculated risk to preserve interceptors for the most serious dangers.

5. Systemic Technical Challenges

While Israel’s defense systems are advanced, no system is perfect. Technical glitches, malfunctions, or issues with radar detection in the heat of a large-scale attack are always possible. An attack of this scale might reveal previously unseen weaknesses in the system’s software or operational protocols. Missiles might have evaded detection or been improperly targeted, resulting in some breaches of Israel’s defenses.

6. Iran’s Improved Missile Technology

It’s also possible that Iran’s missile technology has significantly improved since previous conflicts. They may have developed missiles with stealth capabilities or enhanced warheads that evade radar or have features designed to confuse Israel’s missile defense systems. If Iran has invested in more advanced technology, this could present a new challenge for Israel’s existing defenses, forcing them to adapt rapidly.

A Multilayered Challenge

The failure of Israel’s missile defense systems today likely stems from a combination of factors rather than a single cause. Whether it’s the use of hypersonic missiles, the strain from ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah, or Iran’s tactical evolution, today’s events serve as a reminder that even the best defense systems are not infallible.

As for the possibility of a deliberate act to allow some missiles through, while less likely, it could suggest a highly calculated defense strategy. Israel might be sending a signal or conserving its resources for an expected retaliation. The complexity of modern warfare means that these incidents often involve layered decisions, and today’s breach could reflect a mix of technical challenges, evolving threats, and tactical choices.

This will likely push Israel and its allies to reassess their defense strategies in the face of advancing missile technology and increasingly sophisticated threats.

Global Reactions to the Attack

Unsurprisingly, the international community was quick to react. US President Joe Biden wasted no time in ordering US forces in the region to assist Israel. American naval forces reportedly fired dozens of interceptors, helping take down several incoming Iranian missiles.

The UK’s Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, also condemned the attacks, reaffirming the UK’s strong support for Israel. In his statement, he emphasized the UK’s commitment to Israel’s right to self-defense, calling on Iran to end its aggression.

What Comes Next?

This attack is not just another chapter in the Israel-Iran saga – it’s a serious escalation. Israel’s military has already indicated that it’s planning a “severe” response to this aggression. Rear Admiral Daniel Haggari, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), hinted that Israel is preparing for significant military action in retaliation, and that the country remains on high alert.

The US is also keeping a close watch, with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warning that Iran could face “severe consequences” if it continues to threaten Israel’s security. Iran, on the other hand, seems defiant, with the IRGC threatening a “more crushing and ruinous” response if Israel retaliates.

Possible Outcomes of This Escalation

The consequences of this latest attack could be far-reaching, both regionally and globally:

1. Further Military Escalation: With both Israel and Iran exchanging threats, a major military confrontation could be looming. Israel could launch significant retaliatory strikes against Iranian positions in Syria, Lebanon, or even Iran itself.
2. Regional Instability: Iran’s missile attacks not only affect Israel but could draw in other players like Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Countries in the region may be forced to take sides, deepening existing divisions.
3. Increased US Involvement: The US is already a major player in the Middle East, but this attack could see further American military action in the region, especially if Iran targets US bases or interests.
4. Global Economic Fallout: With tensions rising, there could be a ripple effect on global oil markets. Iran, a key player in the global oil supply chain, could threaten to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, causing prices to spike.
5. Diplomatic Breakdown: This attack could potentially derail any ongoing diplomatic efforts to bring Iran and Israel closer to negotiations. The shadow war between the two nations may become more visible, as covert operations give way to direct military confrontations.

Finishing Thoughts:

Iran’s missile attack on Israel is a stark reminder of the fragile nature of peace in the Middle East. As the situation unfolds, one thing is clear: this conflict is far from over. With both sides digging in their heels, the world must brace for what could be an even more devastating escalation in the coming days. Stay tuned as we watch these events unfold – the next few days will be critical in determining the future of the Middle East.

Iranian ballistic missile impacts in Israel.

It seems that they are striking numerous targets. pic.twitter.com/7XFNk008Pk

— Global: Military-Info (@Global_Mil_Info) October 1, 2024

Video on X.com claiming and Showing a Missile Barrage of Ballistic Missiles.

🇮🇱🇮🇷 15 minutes Iranian missiles hitting Israel … supercut pic.twitter.com/OABH2cWfb4

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) October 1, 2024

Another video claims and shows missiles, missing the iron dome, and hitting the ground.

The missile attack by Iran on Israel is a significant geopolitical event, and both the USA and Russia will play pivotal roles in shaping the aftermath. Let’s explore how both of these global powers are likely to respond based on their historical stances, strategic interests, and current geopolitical dynamics.

USA’s Response

The United States has historically been one of Israel’s closest allies, and in moments like these, the US is expected to stand firmly in Israel’s corner. Given the scale of the attack, the US has already taken steps to support Israel, including deploying military assets to help intercept Iranian missiles. But there’s more to this:

1. Military Support to Israel:
   The US has already used its military presence in the region to aid in missile defense, deploying Navy destroyers to intercept some Iranian missiles. Moving forward, the US could bolster Israel’s air defenses further by deploying more assets, including Patriot missile batteries and additional air defense systems.
2. Increased Military Presence in the Middle East:
   If the conflict escalates, the US may increase its military presence in the Middle East. This could involve deploying more ships to the Eastern Mediterranean or Persian Gulf and sending more fighter jets or even troops to nearby US bases in countries like Jordan or Saudi Arabia.
3. Economic Sanctions on Iran:
   The US has long used economic sanctions as a tool to curtail Iranian aggression. After this attack, the US could implement new sanctions on Iran’s military capabilities, particularly focusing on missile development and the IRGC. Sanctions could also target Iran’s oil exports, as cutting off funding to Iran’s military infrastructure would be a strategic goal.
4. Diplomatic Pressure:
   The US will likely rally its NATO allies and other international partners to condemn Iran’s actions and further isolate Tehran diplomatically. The United Nations may become a stage for discussions on Iran’s violations of international law, and the US could push for resolutions condemning Iran’s aggression.
5. Potential Retaliation on Iran:
   Although the US tends to avoid direct military confrontation with Iran, this attack could push Washington closer to retaliating, especially if US military assets or personnel were threatened. This could take the form of cyberattacks on Iranian military infrastructure, targeted strikes on IRGC facilities, or covert operations aimed at undermining Iran’s ability to launch further missile attacks.

Russia’s Response

Russia’s role in the Middle East is far more complex, given its alliances with both Iran and Israel. Russia has long been a supporter of the Iranian regime, but it also maintains significant diplomatic ties with Israel. Here’s how Russia might approach this:

1. Balancing Act Between Iran and Israel:
   Russia is in a tricky position. On the one hand, it has strong military and economic ties with Iran, especially in Syria, where both countries support the Assad regime. On the other hand, Russia maintains a working relationship with Israel, particularly when it comes to deconfliction in Syrian airspace. Russia will likely call for de-escalation and avoid taking sides overtly.
2. Diplomatic Mediation:
   Moscow could position itself as a mediator, trying to de-escalate the conflict by facilitating dialogue between Israel and Iran. Vladimir Putin could push for diplomatic talks, framing Russia as a neutral actor that can bridge the gap between the two powers.
3. Continued Support for Iran:
   Behind the scenes, Russia will likely continue to support Iran, providing them with diplomatic cover in international forums like the UN Security Council. Russia might also offer military equipment or intelligence to Iran, albeit discreetly, to help Iran counterbalance Israel’s superior military capabilities.
4. Military Coordination in Syria:
   Russia and Iran are closely aligned in Syria, where both support President Bashar al-Assad. However, Israel frequently conducts airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria. Russia will have to manage this delicate situation by coordinating with both countries to avoid military clashes in Syrian airspace. Russia may also work to limit Israel’s ability to strike Iranian targets in Syria, thus protecting its ally.
5. Economic and Arms Sales to Iran:
   Russia has been one of Iran’s main arms suppliers. After this attack, Russia may boost its support by selling Iran more defense systems, such as the S-300 or S-400 missile defense systems, which would help Iran defend itself against potential Israeli or US retaliatory strikes.

Possible Outcomes of US and Russian Responses

1. Heightened US-Russia Tensions:
   If the US increases military pressure on Iran, Russia might respond by stepping up its support for Tehran, leading to a further cooling of relations between Washington and Moscow. This could lead to renewed tensions similar to Cold War proxy conflicts, with the Middle East as the battleground.
2. Potential Diplomatic Deadlock:
   With both the US and Russia backing their respective allies (Israel for the US, Iran for Russia), the UN Security Council could become deadlocked. Both countries could use their veto power to block resolutions aimed at curbing the violence, making it difficult to find an international diplomatic solution.
3. Risk of Broader Regional Conflict:
   With both the US and Russia involved, there’s always a risk that the conflict could escalate into a broader regional war. If the US were to launch a retaliatory strike on Iran, Russia might feel compelled to intervene more directly, leading to an unpredictable and dangerous situation.

The Global Power Game

If this situation spirals, we could see more direct military actions, broader regional instability, and increased global tensions. Both powers will be treading carefully, knowing that the Middle East is a geopolitical powder keg, and any misstep could ignite a much larger conflict.